Will the summer heat stop the COVID-19 pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the government of every country around the globe. The mortality rate is increasing as well as the number of new cases. But will seasonal changes affect the pattern of the pandemic that is debatable? Currently, we do not know how a pandemic will behave in the seasonal variation. However, we see that since its first outbreak in China, the disease is spreading over a large area in cooler regions of the globe. Especially European countries are more affected as the temperature tends to tend to be cooler in those places.

However, scientists say it is too soon to come to such a conclusion. As the virus is a noble one and we do not have any pieces of evidence to support that it cannot spread in warmer climates. But a previous study conducted a decade ago tends to reveal that similar coronavirus shows seasonal variation.

Read Also: COVID-19 was not made in a Chinese lab, researchers conclude

In addition to this, many unreviewed articles suggest that higher temperatures are associated with a lower number of COVID-19 cases. Yet another unreviewed article’s data suggests the spread of the virus according to the meteorological condition shows the variation of spread due to various changes in climate conditions. But as said, we don’t have sufficient data on the behavior of the virus over multiple seasons. Therefore, computer-generated models may come in handy for scientists. Yet another unreviewed source base on a mathematical model suggests the same fact that virus incidence has been lower in regions with higher median temperatures.

The prediction

For now, all we know is that we can only suggest the pattern of the pandemic, and there is a hefty number of chances that it can occur that other way as well. Because nature is always unpredictable and beyond the reach of the human mind. Scientists in the previous century saw the bursting of Spanish flu in summer months, whereas other flu viruses tend to spread in winter. But studies suggest that fragile lipid bilayer of the coronavirus is prone to sunlight. Therefore, with higher humidity and sunlight can possibly halt the spread of the virus. Since higher humidity can help us in the settling of aerosols in the environment.

However, it is not only the interaction of a virus in the environment. It also accounts for the spread of the virus in the human population. If humans remain to dwell in close contact with each other, there is zero chance we can stop the spread of the virus. As we all know, the initial surge of people in China due to lunar new year was the primary cause of spreading of the virus. So we humans can only stop the spread if we can have self-control over ourselves.

One should also note that if the seasonal variation comes into play, we should not take it lightly. As even during summer, flu cases can be present and flares up during fall and winter. Such variation can also affect people lately. Let us wait and watch for now to understand the disease as a whole.

Source: BBC

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