Britain’s bounceback – a forecast for the coming year

The novel coronavirus tore through the United Kingdom for the first time in March 2020 and again in December 2020. Three harsh lockdowns gripped the country over the year, with businesses forced shut and consumers locked at home. This caused countless companies to die, government spending to skyrocket and real GDP to shrink by almost 10%.

Looking forwards

With Wales leading the world in vaccinations, and the other three countries not far behind, the hospitalisations and deaths from COVID have plummeted to rates not seen since the summer lockdown of 2020.

Wales leads the global vaccination race. | Source: New Statesman analysis, Our World In Data, gov.uk, ONS.

Therefore, economists are hugely optimistic for the UK’s economic comeback this year, with them forecasting that the country could see economic growth between 4.6% and 5.0% this year, hopefully avoiding a double-dip recession.

There are also forecasts that the economy could match that of pre-COVID UK by the middle of 2022.

Challenges

However, the UK must remain vigilant of new variants, as they have failed to do so in the past. The now-dominant Delta variant has pushed back the government’s aspired lockdown-ending date of June 21st.

So global vaccinations and genome mapping must be a focus of not just the UK Government, but many governments across the world if we hope to restore our global systems.

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